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Odds of Getting Knife From CS:GO Case

Trying to get your first knife from a case in CS:GO can be tricky. We all know how hard it is to pull out a knife skin from one case. But, did you ever wonder what are the odds for you to get one? Mathematically speaking, how many cases should one open to get a knife out of it. Majority of player knows that the odds for that are really low and they usually opt-in to third-party case opening websites in order to increase their odds. Some of those websites like even let you see what is in the case before opening it. But do we know the exact odds to get a knife from CS:GO case? Luckily, we do because of regulations laws in China.

Skins Odds in CS:GO Cases

A lot of famous YouTubers and Streamers tried to get an answer to this question. In order to do so, they opened a great number of cases and tried to do the math. Of course, every one of them got different results. Some of them were lucky enough to get a knife out of 0,5% of cases while some of them got it from 0,15%. With further analyses and calculations, it was guessed that the chance for a knife is somewhere around 0,2% which meant you have to open 50 cases in order to get a knife. Take note that chances to get a knife on a third-party website are much higher.

The estimated number was relatively close to the real numbers. Apparently, the laws in China forbid game publishers to hide odds from loot cases as it is considered as gambling. Therefore, Valve had to come clean and they released the statement on official CS:GO Chinese version of their website.

In the statement, Valve said that exactly 10% of all skins opened from cases are StatTrak. Further, the chances to get a special item (knife or gloves) from one case is 0,26%. Considering that there is only 10% of StatTrak skins it means you have 0,026% to get a StatTrak knife from one case.

The official numbers are as following

  • Special Item – 0,26%
  • Covert – 0,64%
  • Classified – 3,20%
  • Restricted – 15,98%
  • Mil-spec 79,92%

Similarly to Chinese, Belgium and Netherlands governments also think opening cases is gambling. They declared loot boxes illegal.
Therefore, players from those countries are banned to open in-game cases. In France, it is also illegal but Valve found a way to avoid it. They introduced a P250 X-ray scanner that can actually scan a case and see what is in it. After scanning a case, a player can decide whether he wants to open that case or not. However, the P250 X-ray scanner is locked until a player decides to open the last case it scanned. In other words, those scanners weren’t invented to prevent gambling. They were only a loophole to avoid laws and allow France citizens to open cases “legally”.

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